Modelling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Population Policy in Jersey: a Multi-Period Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper uses a multi-period economic-environmental CGE modelling framework to analyse the impacts of natural population change and the relaxation of migration constraints in a labour-constrained economy. Population and environmental concerns are core elements of sustainable economic development policy in the target economy of Jersey. Specifically, CGE model simulations are used to track the impact of changes in population on a number of energyconsumption and pollution indicators under alternative hypotheses regarding economic conditions over the time period under consideration. In the case of Jersey, we find that household consumption is the key factor governing the environmental impact of economic disturbances. Therefore the analysis includes an examination of the sensitivity of the simulation results to different assumptions regarding demand and production elasticities that affect the elasticity of labour demand and therefore the responsiveness of household income to shifts in labour supply.
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